[Railroad track with clouds in the distance*]
Worldwide, the corona virus has shut down almost all businesses, big and
small, and hit the income of almost workers, salaried and independent. In
regards to the day after, when social and business activity is allowed to fully
restart, the latter group, the independents, are especially worried. While it
is difficult to accurately predict the future, one concept seems relevant in
regards to forecast for the short-term future: pent up demand. It is clear that
certain professionals will be extremely busy for months to come.
Accountants, doctors and attorneys always finds a way to profit. Given
the need to take advantage of the various government support programs and their
complexity, accountants will be quite busy and even gain new customers. Their
cousins, the financial service providers, will be active helping people manage
their debt and get into more debt. On the medical side, the stress of these
months on everybody, not just healty care workers, will be boom of those
doctors that treat the effects of it, including dermotologists, alergists,
cardiologists, dentists, psychologists and psychiatrists, as if their
clientelle was not large enough already. However, the lawyers will enjoy the
greatest boom. Whether handing divorce, estates, breach of contract or payment
issues, the courts are going to be busy. Jewish mothers knew something when
they wanted their children to enter these professions.
The busiest service providers, at least in the short term, will be in
the beauty care industry. Tens of millions of women will not have had a proper
heart cut, dyeing, manicure, pedicure, injection or skin treatment for months.
To clarify, I do not state that in derision but in appreciation of their need
and its impact on those that provide this service. In fact, it is possible that
these businesses will more than make up for the lost income. I also expect to
prices to rise in these industries as many women will not want to wait an
additional month for an appointment.
To misapply Newton’s 3rd law of motion, every action has an
equal but opposite action. After several months of no serious physical exercise
or social activity, people are going to go extreme on sport and going out. The
gyms, sports centres and country clubs are going to be jammed the minute such
activity is considered safe. Many people will feel the absolute requirement to
lose the kilos (or pounds) that they gained while stuck at home. It is unclear
how long these people will maintain their enthusiasm but demand for such
services will be initialy very strong. Cafes, bars and sports stadiums will be
also be packed. These places represent the polar opposite of being stuck at
home: lots of noise, talk, non-family and vicarious pleasure. The coffee or
beer may the same but everything else is different. Vive la difference! Flights probably will be packed as people travel to see their “long-lost” loved ones. Any professional involved this social approaching will gain.
Time will tell if how correct these predictions are. Clearly, for some independents,
the return to the “good old days” before the corona device will take time,
possibly years. For others, the shutdown
period will be an unpleasant but short hickup in their business development,
even a shot in the arm. It is the challenge of independents to figure the route
of the recovery train and somehow catch it.
* For the sake of the millions of blind, always post a description of your picture.
Image by <a href="https://pixabay.com/users/Larisa-K-1107275/?utm_source=link-attribution&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=image&utm_content=163518">Larisa Koshkina</a> from <a href="https://pixabay.com/?utm_source=link-attribution&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=image&utm_content=163518">Pixabay</a>
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